The team of meteorologists from the Colorado State University has updated its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The positive news is that they've slightly reduced the number of expected hurricanes: from nine to eight. Although this is still more than the annual average (seven), it's considered a moderate decrease.
The reason? High levels of wind shear in the Caribbean. These upper-level winds, which make it difficult for storms to form, have been intense during June and July. Historically, when shear is high, hurricane seasons tend to be less active.
However, beware: fewer hurricanes doesn't mean zero risk. Sixteen named tropical storms are still expected, three of which have already formed: Andrea, Barry, and Chantal.
The U.S. coast: Who's at greater risk?
Although there are fewer hurricanes, the risk of major impacts on the U.S. coast remains high. Florida is, as always, the state at greatest risk.
It has a 90% chance that a tropical storm will pass within 50 mi. (80 km) and a 62% chance that it will be a hurricane. In other words, it's almost certain that something will affect the state this year.
Alabama and other states: Figures to keep in mind
The case of Alabama is also relevant. The forecast indicates a 64% chance that it will be affected by a tropical storm; for hurricanes, the probability drops to 32%. Even so, there's a 10% chance that a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) will pass nearby.
Other Gulf states, such as Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, also show considerable percentages of risk. In contrast, northeastern states like New Jersey or Massachusetts have lower, but not zero, figures.
What to do if you live in a risk zone?
Regardless of the statistics, preparation is key. If you live in a city with moderate or high risk, make sure you have a family plan, basic supplies, and stay informed of official warnings.
Probabilities are just that: probabilities, but it only takes one hurricane reaching your area for the consequences to be severe. This 2025 may not be a record season, but it's still an active one. Storms don't need to be numerous to cause damage; they only need to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.