California already has the most expensive gasoline in the entire United States. However, the situation could get worse. A recent report warns that, in 2026, the price per gallon could reach $8.
This isn't just a number. For millions of people who use their cars daily, it would mean spending much more just to get to work, take their children to school, or go shopping. The problem isn't limited to drivers: an increase of this magnitude would affect the entire state economy.
Refinery closures, the trigger
One of the key factors is the closure of two refineries: Phillips 66 in Los Angeles and Valero in Benicia. Together, they represent almost 20% of California's refining capacity.
The state consumes more than 13 million gallons of gasoline per day. With fewer facilities to produce but the same demand, the result is inevitable: prices go up.
The comparison is simple: if several bakeries close in a city, bread will be more expensive because there will be less supply. The same thing happens with gasoline.
Environmental regulations and external dependence
California is a pioneer in environmental policies. Its laws to reduce emissions include:
- State taxes on fuels.
- A low-carbon fuel standard.
- Programs that limit the amount of polluting gases.
These regulations help fight climate change, but they also make production more expensive. Refineries must invest more to meet the requirements and, in some cases, they prefer to close rather than keep operating at a loss.
With fewer local refineries, the state will have to import gasoline from the Gulf of Mexico, Texas, or even Asia. This means extra expenses for maritime transport and storage. In addition, external dependence increases the risk that any crisis, hurricanes, strikes, or international conflicts will abruptly drive up prices.
An impact that goes beyond drivers
If the price per gallon of gasoline reaches $8, filling the tank will cost much more than it does now. However, the problem doesn't end there:
- Truck drivers will have to pay more for fuel, which will make transporting goods more expensive.
- The prices of food, clothing, and other basic products will increase.
- The cost of living in California, already high, could become unsustainable for many families.
Experts propose solutions such as keeping refineries open, adjusting regulations, or accelerating the adoption of electric cars. However, these measures require time, investment, and political will. No one can guarantee that they'll be implemented before 2026.