Real Madrid has played 7 matches in the first phase of the Champions League, with 4 wins and 3 losses. With 17 goals for and 12 against.
Ancelotti's team reaches the seventh matchday in 16th place, tied at 12 points with five teams: Dortmund, Bayern, Juventus, and Celtic of Glasgow.
Their chances of entering the round of 16 directly are minimal, almost impossible. But the play-off to reach the quarterfinals is guaranteed.
Real Madrid's Possibilities
It's a hassle because it involves playing two more matches, but Real Madrid will have to go through this process to reach the round of 16 of the competition.
Opta gives Real Madrid a 0.9% chance of reaching the round of 16 directly. That is, to be among the top eight. The play-off, however, is easy, although they will always have to win in Brest in the last match to avoid last-minute scares.
The teams closest to Real Madrid in the standings have lost. Now Real Madrid is closer to them (Leverkusen, Lille, Brest, Aston Villa...)
Real Madrid (+5) has a lower goal difference in case of a tie than Bayern (+7). But it has one more goal than Juventus (+4).
Real Madrid (12 points) would benefit from scoring a bunch of goals against Brest (13 points) in the last matchday. It would be the best way to successfully solve the ties.
It also needs those ahead to slip up: Atalanta (14 points) to lose in Montjuïc; Leverkusen (13) not to win at home against Sparta Prague (13).
Aston Villa (13) also not to win at Villa Park against Celtic; Monaco (13) to lose at San Siro against Inter. And Lille and Feyenoord (both 13) to draw in France in their last duel.
Thrilling Last Matchday
On Wednesday, January 29, at nine o'clock in the evening, the last matchday of the Champions League preliminary phase will be played. The 18 matches will be played simultaneously, which means there will be major developments as the matches progress.
The 18 matches of the last matchday
Sporting de Portugal - Bologna
Dinamo Zagreb - AC Milan
Barcelona - Atalanta
Bayer Leverkusen - Sparta Prague
Juventus - Benfica
Stuttgart - Paris Saint-Germain
Young Boys - Red Star
Aston Villa - Celtic
Bayern Munich - Slovan Bratislava
Inter - AS Monaco
PSV Eindhoven - Liverpool
Borussia Dortmund - Shakhtar Donetsk
Sturm Graz - RB Leipzig
Girona - Arsenal
LOSC Lille - Feyenoord
Salzburg - Atlético de Madrid
Stade Brestois - Real Madrid
Manchester City - Bruges