Logic said the Ballon d'Or would go to the World Cup champion or to the tournament's standout figure. But the scenario has taken an unexpected turn. Neither Kylian Mbappé nor Ousmane Dembélé excelled at the event in the United States.
The former was missing in action. The latter was effective with PSG, but wasn't decisive with France. This throws the doors wide open for Lamine Yamal to win the Ballon d'Or, at just 17 years old.
The young winger from FC Barcelona has gained ground in the race for the most prestigious individual award. His performance with Barça, with La Liga, Copa, Supercopa, and Champions League semifinal, now make him the clear favorite. No one overshadowed him at the World Cup.
Dembélé, champion but without shine
On paper, Ousmane Dembélé has everything to win the Ballon d'Or. He has won La Liga, Copa, and Champions League with PSG, something very few players can say throughout history.
However, the award doesn't always follow that logic. Just ask Franck Ribéry, who won everything in 2013. He saw the trophy go to Cristiano Ronaldo without winning anything.
That precedent works in Lamine Yamal's favor, whose media and football impact has been so overwhelming that it has changed the narrative. The world of soccer isn't talking about titles, they're talking about talent.
The young Barça player's talent has been so evident that even FIFA and UEFA consider him one of the year's phenomena.
Mbappé doesn't take advantage of his opportunity
As for Kylian Mbappé, he was expected to dominate the Club World Cup with Real Madrid. But the Real Madrid striker has delivered a lackluster performance, without standing out.
His low profile in the tournament has cost him. It was his big chance to secure his first Ballon d'Or with Madrid, but he hasn't lived up to expectations.
By contrast, Lamine Yamal made the most of his year at Barça: he was decisive in every match, with goals, assists, and leadership. That, in the middle of a Ballon d'Or election year, counts more than anything else.
Moreover, his play excelled especially in the four Clásicos won comfortably against Real Madrid. That's a match watched all over the world.
Lamine Yamal, the favorite?
The Ballon d'Or jury doesn't have it easy. But if the 2013 criteria are repeated (individual performance over collective titles), Lamine Yamal has every chance to win the award.
He has made history at just 17 years old. While Dembélé has won more titles, the young Barça player has conquered something more valuable: the fans' hearts.